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Ferrous Scrap Price Index Review

Ferrous Scrap Price Index in Europe

European increase of market demand for scrap has occurred due to coking coal prices leap as at October 2016. Steel mills in Europe have keen interest in ferrous scrap buying as they have to use ferrous scrap instead of coke to produce steel causing ferrous scrap price index raise.

The experts’ forecast is that scrap steel demand will rise several times in the coming weeks. The Turkish market of scrap import caused to fall ferrous scrap price index in Europe and it is expected that steel industry demand for ferrous scrap will continue to grow in the nearest future.

Ferrous Scrap Price Indexes in Turkey

According to the data provided by the official Turkish statistical body TUIK, in January-August 2016 Turkey increased ferrous scrap import to 4.6% year on year up to 11.54 mil.t. whereas in terms of value it decreased to 19.3% up to USD 2.55 bln.

In particular, the US import has fallen by 9.4% up to 2.181 mln.t. whereas Russian import increased to 13.56% up to 1.883 mln.t. moreover, from UK for 5.8% up to 1.661 mln.t. the Netherlands at that became the fourth largest scrap supplier for Turkish metallurgical sector (for 2.17 times and up to 1.593 mln.t.) then Belgium follows raising the shipping to 41.8% up to 1.243 mln.t. in advance of France (for 2.45 times up to 454.9 ths.t.).

It’s noteworthy that Ukraine had been keeping the 10-th position in Top-10 of the leading suppliers of ferrous scrap to Turkey for 8 months, at that having decreased the shipping by 74% up to 246.758 ths.t.

In August 2016, Turkey increased scrap import year on year by 27% up to 1.3 mln.t. (plus 22.6% to June). In terms of value, this index decreased by 10.55% but increased by 5.8% month on month up to USD 295.3 mln.

As at October 18, 2016 according to the information from SP Global Platts, Ferrous Scrap Price Indexes in Turkey are as follows:

• HMS US East Coast Scrap (Ferrous Scrap Price Index is 202.5 USD / LGT)
• Turkish Scrap (Platts) (221 USD / MT)
• Turkish Scrap (TSI) (221 USD / MT)

Ferrous Scrap Price Indexes and Import Rates in China

In August, the import of ferrous scrap to China has increased. According to the published statistical data, China has imported 191 ths. of ferrous scrap in August that is 26.3% more year on year and 15.2% more than in June. This is the biggest import value of ferrous scrap since April of this year. Besides, in August Chinese companies have increased ferrous scrap import to 26.3% year on year up to 191 ths.t. according to official statistics of the National Statistics Committee of PRC.

As compared to July, scrap import has increased to 15.2%. It was exported 89.8% from total import value from Japan and this is 35.7% more than in August 2015. As it was reported, the still mills of China have decreased scrap import by 19.3% up to 1.164 mln.t. in January-June 2016 according to Customs Office Statistics of PRC.

The import from China at that decreased by 15% up to 1.023 mln.t, from South Korea to 30.9% up to 37.48 ths.t. In July 2016, ferrous scrap import decreased by 2.4% and up to 165.41 ths.t. year on year.

In addition to that, ferrous scrap price index in India remains stable. As the experts say, there is excess material development on the market that should make additional pressure on scrap prices in October 2016. The price index decrease for USD 10 is expected the next month caused by the prices fall for hot-rolled coils and against the background of the closing of some still mills for technical maintenance period as TSI reports.

Ferrous scrap price index decreased more than 6% for the last month. Meantime scrap stock at steel manufacturers is at the optimal level as TSI points out. The prices for container-fragmented scrap at the Indian market were stable at price level USD 236/t CFR West Coast ports on the third week of September.

Ferrous Scrap Price Index in India is Stable

American Ferrous Scrap Price Indexes Seem Stable

The American prices for H1 ferrous scrap price indexes as at October 3, 2016 amounted USD 193.5/t and stay unchanged for three weeks in a raw.

In particular, H1 Ferrous Scrap Price Indexes at the beginning of October 2016 were as follows:

• Pittsburg USD 199.5/t;
• Chicago USD 207.5/t;
• Philadelphia USD 173.5/t.

Ferrous scrap price index stagnates against the background of season demand and supply decrease.

The wholesale ferrous scrap price index in Brazil was stable the first week of October. S&P Global Platts estimates the average scrap price is R$ 405/t (USD 125/t) with a range of the offer price quotations R$ 395-415/t.

Ferrous scrap price index HMS 1&2 is stable at R$ 397.5/t with a range of the offer price quotations R$ 385-410/t. The steel chip price is R$ 300/t with a range of the offer price quotations R$ 290-310/t.

The market participants point to a decline in indicators of supply and demand, which is typical for this time of year, but further scrap price reduce is expected November 2016, whereas it is difficult to give accurate forecast of ferrous scrap price index trend. The prices are at the same level, the market players are still waiting for the improvement. If the market is more active, then the quotes will definitely decrease more.

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